Publishing Date
With a trade war now underway, the BC Government introduced a budget earlier today that continues to invest in provincial services while attempting to shore up the provincial economy. Incremental new spending has been targeted for local government priorities, including homelessness response, addiction treatment, street disorder and affordable housing. Longer-term challenges lay ahead, however, with a growing debt and still unknown impacts from tariffs to the provincial economy and government revenue.
New spending responding to local government priorities
- UBCM has advocated for the expansion of funding for Homeless Encampment Action Response Team and Homeless Encampment Action Response Temporary Housing (HEART and HEARTH). These programs support the transition of homeless individuals indoors and close down encampments. 100% of the funding will support new projects in communities beyond the 10 served by the current program.
- UBCM has repeatedly called for additional funding to support addictions treatment and recovery. Budget 2025 provides $500 million over three years in new funding to support addictions treatment and recovery programs established through previous budgets. This funding will expand the 3,600 treatment and recovery beds currently available. The Ministry of Health will provide further information as the funding is implemented and UBCM will be monitoring the implementation of this funding.
- UBCM has called for increased funding from the province to address the prevalence of street disorder in BC communities. Budget 2025 will provide $67 million over three years for the Repeat Violent Offending Intervention initiative and a new Community Safety and Targeted Enforcement Program pilot. This initiative will specifically target robbery, shoplifting, theft, mischief to property and property-related offences, providing police with enhanced tools, technology and investigative resources to curb these crimes.
- UBCM’s housing strategy has consistently prioritized provincial spending aimed at creating affordable homes. Budget 2025 will allocate an additional $318 million to support BC Builds to support the construction of new homes for middle‑income working people.
Healthcare
- $4.2 billion more (including the $500 million noted above) over three years to improve health services, including primary and acute care services, long‑term care and community care services, mental health and addictions care, and services through other service delivery organizations or agencies.
Policing
- Budget 2025 provides $104 million in additional funding over the plan for negotiated wage increases for provincial RCMP, as well as increased funding for the First Nations and Inuit Policing Program. A portion of this amount will be allocated to funding for body‑worn cameras for frontline RCMP officers.
Provincial Deficit, Debt & Public Service Levels
- The deficit is expected to grow to $10.9 billion in 2025/26, $10.2 billion in 2026/27 and $9.8 billion in 2027/28.
- B.C.’s taxpayer-supported debt at the end of 2024/25 is forecast to be $97.7 billion, which is $9.1 billion higher than forecast in Budget 2024. Taxpayer‑supported debt‑to‑GDP is estimated at 22.9% this year, compared to 21.0% forecasted in the last budget. The debt level is expected to reach $166.5 billion by 2027/28.
- Full-time equivalent (FTE) staff utilization for government ministries remains unchanged since the last quarterly report forecast of 38,900 FTEs in 2024/25. Given new restrictions on hiring, this projection remains flat over the three years of the fiscal plan.
Anticipated Tariff Impacts
- $43 billion decrease in real GDP by 2029
- 45,000 fewer jobs by 2029
- Provincial revenue expected to decline by $1.7 billion to $3.4 billion per year
Demographics
- B.C.’s July 1 population is now projected to increase by only 0.2% in 2025; decline by 0.3% in 2026 and increase by 1.0% on average from 2027 to 2029.